By Martin Straathof, OFT Executive Director
Lately, I have been thinking a lot about what it means to support Canadian.
Some of that reflection has been prompted by the renewed trade tensions between Canada and the United States. For most of my life, it has been easy to take for granted that goods will move relatively freely across our border, that supply chains will remain dependable, and that the relationships we rely on today will look much the same tomorrow. However, recent events have been a reminder that this is not guaranteed.
That does not mean Canada should turn inward. Agriculture is deeply connected to international trade, and Canadian farmers help feed people around the world. In 2024, Canada exported approximately $100 billion in agriculture and food products to over 200 countries [1]. The United States alone accounted for nearly 62% of our agri-food and seafood exports and more than half of our imports [2].
But a changing geopolitical landscape should make us think carefully about the things a country needs to remain strong and resilient. Here’s something so fundamental that it can be easy to take for granted, even as we lose it at an unsustainable rate: the land capable of feeding our population.
What 50 years of Canadian agriculture tells us
I started looking at the numbers because I wanted to understand how Canada’s agricultural land base has changed alongside our population.
- In 1976, Canada had approximately 169 million acres of farmland and a population of just under 23 million people. That worked out to roughly 7.4 acres of farmland for every Canadian.
- By 2021, Canada’s population had grown to almost 37 million people, while total farm area had fallen to approximately 154 million acres. That leaves us with about 4.2 acres of farmland per person.
- In other words, in less than half a century, the amount of farmland available per Canadian declined by approximately 44%.
And yet, Canadians did not experience a corresponding decline in agricultural production. Canadian farmers have become dramatically more productive over the past 50 years. Advances in crop breeding, soil and nutrient management, machinery and farming practices have allowed farmers to produce considerably more from each acre.
In 1976, Canadian grain corn yielded about 5.3 tonnes per hectare and soybeans about 1.6 tonnes. By 2024, those yields had roughly doubled to 10.6 and 3.3 tonnes per hectare, respectively. Canola yields increased by more than 70% over the same period [3,4]. That is an incredible Canadian agricultural success story, which is also why the significant loss of farmland becomes easy to overlook [5].
But can we assume that will continue forever?
The productivity gains that characterized the late twentieth century have been slowing. Farm Credit Canada reports that Canadian agricultural productivity growth reached approximately 2% annually during the 1990s and 2000s, but fell to about 1.3% annually during the 2010s. If current trends continue, FCC projects growth below 1% annually during this decade [6].
Though that does not mean agricultural innovation has stopped. There are enormous opportunities ahead in genetics, robotics, artificial intelligence, precision agriculture, soil science and other technologies. We should be investing aggressively in them. Research and agricultural innovation have generated tremendous returns for Canada, and continued investment will be essential if we want a productive, profitable and resilient agricultural sector.
But innovation and farmland protection cannot be substitutes for one another.
We cannot continually reduce the agricultural land base on the assumption that some future technology will allow the remaining acres to compensate.
It’s time farmland is treated as a critical part of Canada’s infrastructure. We readily understand the importance of protecting other forms of strategic infrastructure. We invest in roads, ports, energy systems, telecommunications and defence because a strong country needs the capacity to function when circumstances change.
Farmland is infrastructure. It is also a finite resource.
Ontario’s upcoming municipal elections are taking place on October 26th.
The municipal election cycle offers a unique opportunity to ask Council candidates questions on farmland protection and identify local champions for agricultural issues. Municipal Councils ultimately make decisions on development applications that directly impact farmland. Therefore, ensuring candidates have a strong understanding of the rural community and how policy decisions affect farmland supply is critical.
Not sure how to engage with Council Candidates? OFT’s Community Mobilization Toolkit was developed to support community members to engage in farmland protection conversations in their local regions. Reach out to Alicia at [email protected] to learn more about what resources we have available for you.
Learn more about our Community Mobilization Strategy here.
References
- Government of Canada, Overview of Canada’s agriculture and agri-food sector
- Government of Canada, Overview of Canada’s agriculture and agri-food sector
- Statistics Canada, Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators
- Statistics Canada, Production of principal field crops, November 2024
- The Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, Critical Ground: Why Soil is Essential to Canada’s Economic, Environmental, Human, and Social Health
- Farm Credit Canada, Reigniting agricultural productivity in Canada